The federal government ended 2010 with a good political perspective, a strong economic situation and international tailwind. There is optimism about the direction of the country. Similarly, there are some uncertainties on the road.
Eduardo Lucita *
Last year various proposals and developments, on a favorable economic base, allowed the government to step up its initiative to recompose image and intention to vote. Result: the national political picture has been shaken up quickly.
The blow meant for Kirchner's electoral defeat in the province of Buenos Aires in 2009 was then used complex media for installing the feeling that the government is weakened, that a runoff would be inevitable in the presidential elections of 2011, which would including the ruling party losing.
had not well characterized by Kirchner: a political team that does not give up easily. Regained the initiative and implemented a set of measures, particularly the nationalization of the private pension funds, the Universal for Child and Reproductive Program with which set the agenda for discussion.
During 2010 the payment of debt to reserves, introduced as progressive compared to the option of paying in surplus, the multitudinous Bicentennial celebrations, the laws of Media and Equal Marriage, resulted in image recovery and intention to vote. All this was enhanced by the unexpected death of Nestor Kirchner. The serious social conflicts that erupted in the past two months, which cost no less than six-impacted lives and realize an inescapable fact, but does not seem too have altered this picture of the situation. Economic Scenario
The 2010 ended with a GDP growth above 8 percent, a drop in unemployment, high rates of corporate profits, consumption and tax collection overflowed record and not just by rising prices, the VAT is the tax collector but more than the highest growth for 2009 were earnings and social security contributions.
public debt payable is only 18 percent of GDP, while stocks and bonds have high yields. These results are projected by 2011 with an estimated GDP growth of not less than 5 percent. The lack of an approved budget gives the government extraordinary availability of funds, while the tail wind seems to blow the world economy, at least for now, every day stronger. Only inflation and drought that threatens the harvest, appear as clouds on the horizon more than promising.
The government has strengthened this trend, beginning negotiations to stabilize the debt with the Paris Club, which was accompanied by a reopening of the exchange, this time for holders of Brady bonds, and fees would be recognized by the previous exchange, when previously denied them. A new law on work accidents, and again demanded by employers, would be in a folder. It authorized the entry of IMF staff to prepare a new price index. It called for a social pact aimed at setting limits to requests for salary increases, in parallel to limit the rise in prices and encourage reproductive investments. In the gossip says that there are ministerial orders to advance proposals to reduce subsidies, the main criticism, together with inflation, opposition and international organizations. Compliments
Consistent different media recorded sayings and statements unthinkable months ago. Orlando Ferreres, former deputy economy minister in times of Carlos Menem said "ahead twenty years of economic growth in the country." The neoliberal Miguel A. Broda said: "We are facing ten or fifteen years of good economy." For the economist Miguel Kiguel, "Cristina Kirchner became more moderate, there is a change, but say it is 'pro-market' a lot. " De Mendiguren, secretary of the UIA, said: "We notice a more relaxed atmosphere. Even in the act of YPF noticed the other day. There was the opposition, the government, business ... Or even at the Iberoamerican Summit (in Mar del Plata), one saw a more consensus Argentina, improved dialogue with the U.S. over when it was mentioned what had happened before. " Elisa Carrio, more moderate and without his classic apocalyptic tone: "We are facing three years of good economy." According to a survey published in the International Business Report "employer optimism about the future of the country's economy this year is 70 percent, when he was only 31 at the beginning of 2010. "
all fractions of capital uncorked champagne (the good). There are too many questions for social inequalities by mining pollution, either by the lack of a fair tax policy, let alone for the delay in improving income distribution.
Beyond Impressionism and they all say distrust of government and "an interventionist state," this is the air of the times early in the new year. No forecast is no longer an economic catastrophe, even a significant drop in activity. Scenario
political
Until the death of Nestor Kirchner different opinions, including that of this writer, argued that Kirchner released for re-election, it lay with increasingly in positions of center / center. He appeared as a necessity because it could not resort to capture votes from the right, as it did in the previous presidential closing the deal with Julio Cobos and the mayors questioned suburbs. Is that after the conflict Resolution 125 that way seemed closed.
The unexpected death of former president changed that perception. Hit hard in the Federal Peronism, which cracked and opened the possibility the ruling to recover certain sectors isolating the die-hards, that gives meaning to call Cristina Fernández to the PJ has an inclusive policy towards dissidents and young people, whose presence at the funeral was massive. New figures
This call has had its counterpart: the core decision-making mechanisms of government appear to have extended to other figures, including Minister Amado Boudou, now released as a candidate for the City of Buenos Aires, with the consent presidential disorientation official progressivism and the clamor of the opposition. The mayor's appointment as Minister of Berazategui-baron between Suburbs barons "is another sign of openness. Also limit the space of the secretary general of the CGT, Hugo Moyano, something welcomed by the PJ and entrepreneurship.
intellectuals gathered in an open letter seem to have taken note of these signals. In his last public document, in that cryptic language accustomed to its members seem to make a double appeal: the government to deepen the progressive course and the ruling to reorganize their forces, even come to imply fronts or coalitions. A call of this kind is only possible if they feel the situation leads to some form of dispute.
Thus it is possible that along with positions of center / center- to respond to the liberal base that the government won in recent times, live gestures of openness towards entrepreneurship and PJ dissenting as we are witnessing. It seems that the centroid from which the kirchnerismo displays his pragmatism has slipped a bit to center / center-thereby giving room for the two trends. Questions
These scenarios, which roam the corridors of political and economic power, raises some questions: In front of the leadership vacuum left by Nestor Kirchner, how to arbitrate the differences and conflicts within the PJ and Kirchner himself? If the Social Pact concrete be enough to constrict the workers' demands, control rising prices and boost productive investments? Will remain effective welfare policy to contain social conflict of the excluded sectors of production and consumption? If not outlined any concrete project country, which would have implications for the future "further deepen" the model Kirchner?
are just scenarios and questions that will define the course of 2011, but that may influence post-election future.
* Member of Economists of the Left group.
www.laarena.com.ar
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